Kenya's election commission named Uhuru Kenyatta the winner of the country's presidential election with 50.07 percent on Saturday, but his opponent alleged multiple failures in the vote and said Kenya's democracy was on trial.

Supporters of Kenyatta — a man accused by an international court of helping to orchestrate the vicious violence that marred the nation's last vote — flooded the streets, celebrating in a parade of red, the campaign's color.

Less than two hours after the official announcement, Kenyatta's top opponent, Prime Minister Raila Odinga, said the election process experienced multiple failures and that he would petition the Supreme Court.

Odinga called for calm and asked Kenyans to love one another but said he would not concede because he did not believe he had lost.

"I have stated that nothing could have pleased me more if I had lost fairly," he said, adding: "We have highlighted so many irregularities with the tallying process."

Kenyatta was immediately afforded the state security that would accompany a president-elect, traveling in a shiny black convoy from the tallying center to his election center. In a speech, he thanked Odinga — "my brother" — for a spirited campaign in an address to the nation, according to prepared remarks.

"My fellow Kenyans, today we celebrate the triumph of democracy, the triumph of peace, the triumph of nationhood," he said, adding later: "My pledge to you is that as your president I will work on behalf of all citizens regardless of political affiliation. I will honor the will of Kenyans and ensure that my government protects their rights and acts without fear or favor, in the interests of our nation."

If Kenyatta's victory holds, the son of Jomo Kenyatta will become the fourth president of Kenya since its independence from British colonial rule in 1963.

Posters of Presidential campaign  for Kenyan Prime Minister Raila Odinga in the Kibera slum, Odinga's stronghold, in Nairobi, Kenya. (Dai Kurokawa / European Pressphoto Agency / March 8, 2013)

Kenyatta's win could greatly affect Kenya's relations with the West. The president-elect faces charges at the International Criminal Court for his alleged role in directing some of Kenya's 2007 postelection violence. His running mate, William Ruto, faces similar charges.

The United States has warned of "consequences" if Kenyatta wins, as have several European countries. Britain has said it would have only essential contact with the Kenyan government if Kenyatta is president.

A President Kenyatta may have to spend large chunks of his first years in Kenya's highest office sitting in a court room in The Hague, defending himself against allegations of involvement in the murder, forcible deportation, persecution and rape of supporters of Odinga in the aftermath of the 2007 vote.

Government officials have been working for months to avoid the postelection violence that brought Kenya to the brink of civil war five years ago, when more than 600,000 people were forced from their homes. The election commission Saturday held a dramatic midday televised announcement where officials appealed to Kenyans to accept the results with grace.

"There can be victory without victims," said Ahmed Issack Hassan, the chairman of Kenya's Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission.

Francis Eshitemi, an Odinga supporter in Nairobi's largest slum, Kibera, said it was clear his candidate had lost in a free and fair election and that he expected him to concede.

"The problem is that Raila doesn't have the numbers. There were a few irregularities, but the gap between Raila and Uhuru is big," he said.

Isaac Khayiya, another Odinga supporter, said: "This time we want postelection peace, not war. We will be the ones to suffer if there is violence. For them — Uhuru, Ruto, Odinga — they have security and they are rich."

The final results showed that Kenyatta won 6,173,433 votes — 50.07 percent — to Odinga's 5,340,546 — 43.3 percent. More than 12, 330,000 votes were cast, a record turnout of 86 percent registered voters.

Odinga said results from at least five of the 291 constituencies were disputed, though he pledged to accept any ruling made by the Supreme Court.

Kenyatta's task was not simply to beat Odinga, but to get over the 50 percent mark and avoid a head-to-head runoff. Eight candidates ran for president.

With the discovery of a large oil deposits in the isolated northern Turkana region of Kenya by Tullow Oil PLC and British Oil, the east African nation has begun its journey of joining the exclusive club of African oil producing nations.

Africa is becoming the gold rush for oil exploration: Oil and gas exploration spots are crowding African landscape. With already older oil exploration spots in Nigeria, Angola, Sudan , Chad and the most recent discoveries in Ghana, Uganda, Democratic Republic of Congo, the continent is over washing with oil and gas.

Kenyan oil discovery is “good news” as was assured by Kenyan Prime Minister Raila Odinga but he was also right when he emphasized that the country’s administration should remained “cautiously optimistic".   History has proven that African oil producing nations have not done right with their oil revenues.

When oil revenue is properly invested and managed, it becomes the foundation and source for further wealth creation and the building block of an economically prosperous nation. Norway has shown that oil wealth can be used for a nation development and the so-called “oil curse” did not apply to Norway.

But take a look at the  African oil producing nations including Nigeria, Angola, Chad, Sudan and others, their oil revenues have not bring much quantifiable and tangible economic turnaround. Majority of their citizens are still living in penury poverty with abysmal existential indices that indicated that “oil blessing” have eluded these nations.  The social infrastructures are neglected without upgrade while health and educational facilities remained deteriorated, while capital flight becomes imminent.  The gap between rich and poor widens, the richer continues to increase in wealth and poor continues to live in squalor.

Invest in Agriculture, Tourism and Infrastructures

The golden opportunity that comes with oil revenue is enormous if Kenya is willing to do the right thing. Kenya source of foreign exchange is grounded in cash crop exports and tourism. The major exports are tea and coffee together with fresh flower export to Europe. Kenya can develop and invest in modern mechanized agriculture.

Kenya's Prime Minister Raila Odinga  picture: africanreview

Kenya should learn from the mistake that Nigeria made. Before the flowing in of oil revenue into Nigerian coffers, the country was the largest producer of palm oil and among largest exporter of cocoa, groundnuts and millet. But Nigeria delayed on investing in agriculture and when they came around it became nearly impossible because oil revenue has weaken the country’s resolve to develop her agricultural facilities.

Kenya should tackle the problem of food preservation and processing to enhance export, which will give them the leverage to negotiate for higher prices without the concern of crops decay.

Another great thing Kenya can do is to invest in its infrastructure – provides road, health facilities, electric light and improve its primary and secondary schools. When it comes to education Kenya must invest in his people for economic growth and development to be sustainable. Kenya must be careful and do a good job in order to train and develop adequate manpower to supply the skill for running the oil hi-tech industry.

Most importantly, Kenya should subscribe to transparency and accountability, anything short of that is a disaster. Kenya must muster the will power to change the story in Africa on oil mismanagement, thereby opening a new chapter for the continent.

Emeka Chiakwelu is the Principal Policy Strategist at Afripol Organization. Africa Political and Economic Strategic Center (Afripol) is foremost a public policy center whose fundamental objective is to broaden the parameters of public policy debates in Africa. To advocate, promote and encourage free enterprise, democracy, sustainable green environment, human rights, conflict resolutions, transparency and probity in Africa. http://afripol.org. This e-mail address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it

Kenya, Japan state firms join to survey for oil

The state oil companies of Japan and Kenya have signed an agreement to survey the east African country, which has become a hot spot for exploration after the discovery of oil, and assess its petroleum reserves onshore, officials said on Wednesday.

National Oil Corporation of Kenya (NOCK) and Japan Oil, Gas and Metals National Corporation (JOGMEC) agreed to jointly conduct geophysical surveys to help evaluate whether there are commercially viable hydrocarbons in Kenya.

Geophysical surveys help exploration companies determine the areas where drilling is likely to have the most chance of success.

The deal, which will run for an initial year and a half, underlines the interest of international oil companies in East Africa and the Horn of Africa following several major oil and natural gas finds in the region.

In 2006 companies discovered oil reserves in neighbouring Uganda, and this year explorers found large natural gas deposits off the coast of Mozambique. At the end of March, Anglo-Irish explorer Tullow Oil and its partner Africa Oil Corp discovered oil in northern Kenya for the first time.

Tullow and Africa Oil have yet to determine whether their find is commercially viable.

Tullow said on Monday, however, that the thickness of the oil reservoir was greater than initially expected and that it had only drilled to the most shallow depths of the planned well - a significant sign for Kenya's potential as an oil producer.

About two dozen other companies are exploring for oil and gas onshore and offshore Kenya, including NOCK, which is actively exploring the 14T block in the southern part of the country's Magadi Basin. It acquired the block in November 2010.

NOCK and JOGMEC's first survey on 14T, known as a full tensor gravity gradiometry, is planned for June 2012. NOCK also said the companies would complete 2D seismic surveys and electromagnetic studies. It does not have immediate plans to drill on the block.

Companies exploring for oil and gas often sign joint ventures, such as the one between NOCK and JOGMEC, because the cost of surveying and drilling is high, sometimes reaching up to $50 million onshore.

In addition to NOCK's exploration efforts, it operates more than 100 petrol stations, sells its own petroleum products and is charged with helping develop an infrastructure plan to position Kenya as a global oil and gas trading hub.

Chancellor Angela Merkel in Nigeria, Kenya

"German Chancellor Angela Merkel met the president of oil-and-gas rich Nigeria on Thursday after her trip to Angola the previous day sparked controversy over an offer to sell patrol boats. Merkel was expected to discuss energy and African security matters with President Goodluck Jonathan, who won April elections viewed as the fairest since the continent's largest oil producer returned to civilian rule in 1999.The German chancellor was welcomed by a military guard at the presidential palace in Abuja on Thursday morning following her arrival in Africa's most populous nation the previous night." -AFP

German Chancellor Angela Merkel arrives in Nigeria accompanied by Minister of State, Foreign Affairs Viola Onwuliri at the Nnamdi Azikiwe International Airport in Abuja..

German Chancellor, Angela Merkel, centre, inspects a guard of honor, during her visit to the state house, in Abuja, Nigeria, Thursday, July 14, 2011.

German Chancellor Angela Merkel poses with representatives of religious communities (L-R) emir of Wase, Muhammadu Sambo Haruna, catholic archbishop of Jos, Ignatius Kaigama, sultan of Sokoto, Muhammed Sa'adu Abubakar, rev. Matthew Hassan Kukah and imam of the National mosque Sheikh Musa Muhammad on July 14, 2011 in Abuja, Nigeria

German Chancellor Angela Merkel reviews the honour guard during a welcoming ceremony at the State House in Nairobi, on July 12, 2011 before meeting with Kenya's President Mwai Kibaki. Merkel is on official visit to Kenya to discuss economic cooperation, specifically in the energy sector.

German Chancellor Angela Merkel (L) shakes hands with Kenya's President Mwai Kibaki at the State House in Nairobi, on July 12, 2011.

Germany's Chancellor Angela Merkel gives a speech on July 12, 2011 at the University of Nairobi during the second day of her state visit to the East African nation. Merkel on Tuesday urged Kenya to cooperate with the International Criminal Court in the trial of six top suspects in the country's 2007-2008 post-election unrest.'I talked with the prime minister and the president about the fact that it is right to cooperate with the ICC,' Merkel said. Nairobi has challenged the ICC's jurisdiction to investigate six senior allies of President Mwai Kibaki and Prime Minister Raila Odinga, and previously sought a delay of the trial.

credits:  AP, AFP

Kenyan shilling may not survive currency war

The Central Bank of Kenya has been levied the accusation of deliberately weakening the value of her national currency shilling in order to make Kenyan agricultural products and tourism more attractive to foreign marketers. The Governor of Central Bank of Kenya (CBK) Njuguna Ndung’u said that the accusation has no basis and no legs to stand on.  Governor Njuguna Ndung’u denied that Kenya was pursuing a weaken currency policy, a paradigm that is becoming chic among ambitious exporting and emerging nations. Kenya may have a reason to depreciate the value of her shillings to counteract the effects of global recession and drums up demands for local products and services.

Kenya has a market economy with few government controlled industries. Most of her foreign currency generated is based on commodity export and attraction of tourists to the famous Kenya wildlife industry. The major export of Kenya is coffee together with tourism are the major sources of foreign revenues.  With the global recession and economic meltdown of many industrial countries, foreign donor nations have drastically cool-off on foreign aids. Therefore many developing nations who were the receivers of foreign aids have to buckle up and compete for attraction of capitals and revenues and Kenya is no exception.

Kenya is not a wealthy country and a large percentage of the population survived with less than one dollar a day. Kenya has a recorded GDP of $30.355 Billion (2008) which has grown significantly from $17.43 billion (2005).  With the relatively peaceful environment emerging from awful political violence a while ago, Kenya is poise for a growth but the world recession has made competition tense for export and attraction of foreign capital. Kenyan government has been intervening in the foreign exchange market and utilized the accumulated revenue from export to buy foreign currency and by so doing weaken its local currency.

“Currency dealers in commercial banks have in recent months pointed to the Central Bank’s intervening hand in the currency markets as the single biggest factor that has kept the shilling weak, even as increased foreign currency inflows from agricultural exports and a rebound in tourism dictated that the shilling should be strengthening.

The dealers have said that CBK appears to be inclined on maintaining a weak shilling by buying from the market dollars and other major world currencies in large quantities whenever the shilling has shown signs of gaining value. The Kenya shilling has weakened from Sh75.5 to the dollar to Sh80.60 since the start of the year — earning exporters more shillings per unit of their produce.”

The tendency to interven becomes inevitable to exporting countries that are afraid of having an appreciating and stronger currency which may depress export by making their products and services expensive to the international buyers. The danger of inflation looms with stronger currency and excessive liquidity in the market. In this case the central banks will moderately increase the benchmark interest rate and up the foreign reserve war chest to protect its currency from foreign predators. Kenya is doing the best she can to keep her head above water and compete in the aggressive international trade and market.

Governor (CBK) Njuguna Ndung’u Photo/Business Daily

“Kenya’s import bill has grown to Sh438 billion in the first half of 2010, up from Sh245 billion in 2005, compared to exports of Sh196 billion in the first half of this year and Sh120 billion in 2005.The Central Bank accumulates foreign currency reserves for use in paying government debt, paying for imports and supporting foreign missions.”

Governor Njuguna Ndung’u has stood by his words that his country was not pursuing the policy of depressing its currency. The downside is that Kenya does not have adequate resources to wave-off wealthy nations that are competing in globalized market with same interest and motivations. With her minimal economic strength and limited resources Kenya may not sustain a currency war when it becomes imminent.

Beyond the Constitutional Referendum

From Mombasa to Nairobi, Kenyans came out in droves to pass and celebrate the new constitutional referendum, the most significant since the country attained her independence from Britain in 1963. The catalyst for the reform was the 2007–2008 Kenyan (political, economic, and humanitarian) crisis that erupted after incumbent PresidentMwai Kibaki was declared the winner of the presidential election. Supporters of Kibaki's opponent, Raila Odinga of the Orange Democratic Movement, alleged electoral manipulation. Both sides were subsequentlyguilty of instigating and participating in the crisis that later took ethnic and religious overtone and sentiments.

The referendum was successful with 68.55% of the country voting Yes and 31.45 voting No. The referendum was passed in peaceful nonviolent elections. Key highlights of the reform include:

· Reduction of  presidential powers

· Devolves power to regions

· Creates commission to manage public land

· Creates  House of Senate

· Recognises Kadhi (Muslim) courts

The most important question for Kenyans - what does the reform really meant for the daily life of the average citizen? While political freedom and civic exercises are good and well; the key to ending poverty, germinating peace and creating civil society in Kenya is to deliver the dividends of democratic dispensation. It must connote human development, dignity, and the right for self-determination. The major step, if not only solution for providing these benefits lies first and foremost in land reform.

Kenya like most previous settlement colonies struggles with land reform for two major reasons: The acquisition of land was done in an unjust and criminal manner and the return of some land was given to the ruling elite who subsequently took ownership of the land. The repossessed land was never returned back to the rightful owners, who were mostly peasants and subsistence farmers.  Land is more vital in Kenya than most other African countries because she is not blessed with the mineral wealth.

Kenya Land Alliance (an umbrella NGO) reports that more than a half of the arable land in the country is in the hands of only 20 percent of the 30 million Kenyans. It further reported that 13 percent of the population is absolutely landless, while 67 percent on average own less than an acre per person. How can a country achieve political and civic peace without correcting historical wrong and social injustice which has culminated to 60 percent poverty rate in Kenya?

Land reform is the path to peace and development in Kenya, and the single most important issue facing the country since independence.