Nigeria's inflation drops to 9.4% in the third quarter of 2011

A good and encouraging record trickled from National Bureau of Statistics that inflation rate receded to 9.4%  in July, the lowest so far in three years. This is a significant improvement from persistent inflation that was surging upward that compelled the Central bank of Nigeria (CBN) to aggressively tighten monetary policy. As of June the inflation rate stood at 10.2% and this made the Sanusi's CBN to raise the interest rate to 8.75%. There is no doubt that the monetary policy of restraining and mopping up liquidity at the monetary base aided to slow down the rising inflation.

The governor of Central Bank of Nigeria, Sanusi Lamido has promised earlier to hold down inflation rate at less than 10%, but for a while it appears futile. Therefore the apex bank of the land, CBN gets into muscular mood by increasing the interest rate at numerous times to rein in the run away inflationary trends. Many observers of Nigerian economy and market including investors were little skeptical about the usage of the aggressive tightening of the monetary policy to achieved the targeted goal.

Financial writer at Thisday, Obinna chima observed that, "The CBN had always expressed disdain for double-digits inflation rate in the country. This has seen the apex bank’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC), adjusting various monetary policy instruments to achieve that ambition. The MPC which has operational independence in setting of interest rates in the country had increased the benchmark interest rate – the Monetary Policy Rate (MPR) four times since this year. The benchmark interest was raised from 6.5 per cent in January to 7.5 per cent in March, 8 per cent in May and to 8.75 per cent at the July meeting. Other monetary policy tools such as Cash Reserve Requirements (CRR) had also been reviewed upward."

In reality the issue of taming inflation in Nigeria must go beyond monetary policy but should involves the presidency's fiscal policy to help in the struggle to control inflation. Central Bank of Nigeria should be probably elated with the recent development as inflation now stood below 10% but the struggle is not yet over. The increasing of interest rate to dry up the market excessive liquidity in order to achieve the desired goal of restraining inflation may have a reverse effect at some point. As the interest rate increases it will dampened economic growth by making the availability of credits and loans to tighten. The scenario may once again usher in credit crunch and the financial flow of liquidity in the capital market. This is not the result that CBN is trying to achieve, that it is why a comprehensive outlook is needed to continuous wrestle down inflationary trends.

The economy is cruising at 7.9 - 8 % and that is phenomenal by any standard. The growth must be jealously protected from the rising inflation that can quickly dent the economic growth and reverse the trend. The injections of surplus money into the circulation by the bailing out of the failed banks have in the past contributed to inflation. The continuous and excessive borrowing by Nigerian government by selling of the bonds must be done in way that too much money will not overheat the economy. Nothing is wrong with a country selling bonds and T-bills to investors but the raised funds must be diligently funneled into the economy by the way of investments.

Another methodogy that can be used to checkmate inflation is for Nigeria to live within its means. By this a planned budget must be sensible and it must be successfully implemented. When a government dabbles into excessive spending that will increase its current expenditure and in the long run have untold consequences. The ramifications may come in the retarding of the economic activities and the surging of inflation rate due to excessive liquidity in the market. When Nigeria lives within its means, there will be no need to aggressively raise the interest rate to combat inflation.

When the interest rate was raised to 8.75% at end of CBN's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) session, it issued a statement that, "The Committee observed that the inflation outlook appears uncertain owing to the expected implementation of the new national minimum wage policy and the imminent deregulation of petroleum prices. Significant injection of liquidity from FAAC in the third quarter coupled with the impact of AMCON recapitalizing intervened banks to the tune of N1.6 trillion will both add to inflationary pressures." That is supposely the case but it is not the whole story; the excessive government spending and borrowing played a role to the state of inflation.

Investment in this case means to put money and resources on things that will enable the creation of wealth possible. Investments should go into the provision of infrastructures and social amenities that are needed by the citizens and capitalist for further creation of wealth and upliftment of the wellbeing of the society. The Nigerian government should do its best possible to provide electricity, good roads and security. The security in this case becomes imperative for the protection of life and property, which is the most important function of a given government.

But there are also coming attractions to the economy according Samir Gadio, an emerging markets strategist at Standard Bank Group Ltd that makes outlook on inflation “uncertain.”  Those coming attractions include the doubling of "the monthly minimum wage to 18,000 naira ($116) and to deregulate fuel prices, central bank Governor Lamido Sanusi said last month. Core inflation, which excludes food, will probably accelerate in the second half of the year." These activities have the propensity to increase inflation.

Nigeria must look into the cutting down of importation of food commodities especially rice that can be grown in Nigeria. The less reliance on importation, less spending and less borrowing can bode well for a sound economic standing devoid of higher inflation.

Former World Bank chief Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, Mr Olusegun Aganga minister of Trade and Investment as well as Nigeria’s Central Bank Governor Lamido Sanusi are expected to spearhead Nigeria’s economic recovery, but how the two ministers deal with tensions between them and the CBN will determine their success.

Dr. Okonjo-Iweala is expected to take up the role of Coordinating Minister for the Economy and Minister of Finance, Monday 15, an expanded version of the role she held between 2003 and 2006 when she successfully secured Nigerian debt relief. Dr Okonjo Iweala is believed to have negotiated with the President clear terms on which she would be willing to return to serve in government, including being given broad powers over economic management and freedom from political meddling.

Dr Okonjo Iweala and Olusegun Aganga are big personalities that are well respected internationally. Sanusi the CBN Governor has in recent time spread his remit well beyond the fundamental role of the central bank which may lead to a clash of personality in not too distant time.

However, the creation of the Ministry of Trade and Investment seems to be paying off for the country as local and international investors are buying into the programme of government raising hope for multi-million dollar investments in Nigeria.

Strategic appointment

When the Minister of Trade and Investment, Mr, Olusegun Aganga, was appointed to drive the new initiative, the Organised Private Sector saw the appointment as strategic, especially considering the fact that his wealth of experience in investment and real sector matters, which he displayed even as the Minister of Finance, was more needed in the industry than anywhere else.

The President, Manufacturers Association of Nigeria, Chief Kola Jamodu, alluding to this fact recently said the organized private sector was indeed happy that Aganga had been posted to conclude the good works he started as the country’s finance minister, even though he wished that the Ministry of Trade and Investment could have been expanded to accommodate the name “industry”.

The captains, majors and generals of the Nigerian business community at the maiden interaction between the ministry and the local business community in Lagos two weeks ago was the first sign that the country is about to witness a remarkable change in real sector activities. The Group Chief Executive Officer, Dangote Group, Alhaji Aliko Dangote, Chairman Ikeja Hotels, Mr. Goodie Ibru; Chairman, Nigerian Bottling Company Plc, Segun Akpata; Chairman, HoneyWell Group, Oba Otudeko, among other notable industrialists pledged investments running into trillions of naira in critical projects that will impact positively in the living standards of Nigerians in the next four years.

Transformational agenda

Mr. Aganga

Some banks, including First Bank of Nigeria Plc, Stanbic IBTC bank Plc, United Bank for Africa Plc and Zenith Bank Plc, among other strong banks; have also indicated willingness to invest in key sectors of the economy that will help to drive the transformation agenda of President Goodluck Jonathan.

Notwithstanding the usual perception of policy inconsistency in the country and the poor infrastructure snag in investment matters, foreign investors have also continued to show keen interest in investment opportunities in Nigeria. ‘Deep pocket’ investors from the United States, United Kingdom, Australia, China and other countries have visited the trade and investment ministry to seek for investment opportunities that can be explored for mutual benefits. Experts have said that Aganga’s Goldman Sachs background was a key factor that has raised the confidence of the international community in the Nigerian economy.

With Aganga driving real sector growth and the momentum gathered in preparation for job and wealth creation, the job of the Minister of Finance, Dr. Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, another star cabinet member of Jonathan’s administration, may be much easier.

Notwithstanding the misconception about the two key appointments in some quarters, a frontline industrialist, who asked not to be named, because he could not comment publicly on the matter, said Okonjo-Iweala and Aganga were friends coming from the Diaspora with the same passion about their country, Nigeria, adding that, with their belief in each other’s abilities, the Nigerian economy would be the better for it.

“From what I know about the two key ministers’ capabilities as well as the good relationship they have going for them, I think this is the time to really expect a turnaround of the Nigerian economy,” the industrialist, who spoke with journalists recently in Lagos.

To meet the target set for unlocking capital and growing the real sector of the Nigerian economy, taking the trade and investment minister began his job with a three-day retreat with the directors and chief executive officers of the ministry.

The retreat was targeted at making the staff of the ministry key into the new drive with a view to changing their orientation in preparation for the hard work ahead. Aganga noted at the retreat that the whole idea of the transformation agenda was to create economic growth in the country and ensure the creation of jobs, stressing that the ministry would focus on the implementation of mandatory skills transfer to Nigeria by foreign construction companies as well as develop industrial clusters for the real sector.

The Bank of Industry, Department of Trade in the ministry and the other parastatals and agencies under the ministry have also mapped out clear plans to create additional three million jobs in the next three years as the first step towards the eradication of poverty in Nigeria. This was one of the highpoints of the communiqué issued at the end of a three-day retreat of the ministry in Abuja.

Backward integration

According to a statement from the ministry, as part of the strategies towards achieving this, the different departments and parastatals will develop a comprehensive backward integration programme aimed at improving innovation and productivity for rice, sugar, wheat, yam, potatoes, starch and palm produce, among others. The statement said the ministry would establish model industrial clusters in each geo-political zone across the country.

It said, “In line with the mandate to lead the nation’s investment, job creation and economic growth aggressive investment drive, the ministry must be refocused and repositioned in order to effectively serve as the flag and hub of industrial revolution that will help Nigeria take its rightful place in global affairs. In this regard, departments, agencies and parastatals under the ministry have pledged to create not less than 3,100,850 new jobs within the next three years.

“To achieve effective export promotion, participants agreed on the need for increased efforts towards streamlining the nation’s export produce and documentation as a way of facilitating trade through stronger collaboration with all relevant trade facilitation.”

With the right awareness campaign and the momentum already being gathered for investment growth, the stage is set for Okonjo-Iweala to perform in the right direction.

Vanguard

A UN report criticises Royal Dutch Shell over pollution in Ogoniland

BY BOOTING out Royal Dutch Shell in 1993, the 500,000 inhabitants of Nigeria’s Ogoniland hoped to take the first step towards cleaning up their homeland, a small region within the creeks and swamps of the vast Niger Delta, Africa’s biggest oil-producing region. Almost 20 years later, a new report from the UN says it could take 30 years and at least $1 billion to rid the poisoned mangroves of a thick, black carpet of crude.

The report, the most extensive, scientific research carried out in the Niger Delta, found that some families were drinking water contaminated with 900 times as much benzene, a carcinogen, as is deemed safe by the World Health Organisation. It said areas that Shell had said were clean were in fact still polluted. It also exposed serious failures on the part of Shell and Nigeria’s national oil company NNPC, which it says failed to follow their own best operating practices. Some infrastructure, the report said, was unsafe and could cause further spills. Shell said the “report makes a valuable contribution”, and that it was reviewing its practices.

Shell pulled out of Ogoniland under pressure from the Movement for the Survival of the Ogoni People (MOSOP), founded by a writer, Ken Saro-Wiwa. Saro-Wiwa, who focused international attention on Ogoniland’s woes, fell out with Nigeria’s then-military government and was hanged in 1995 along with eight other dissident tribal leaders. Without admitting guilt, Shell agreed to pay £9.6m in an out-of-court settlement of a legal action that accused the company of collaborating in the executions.

Legal pressures on the company are increasing. The UN report came in the same week the European oil giant admitted liability for the first time under British jurisdiction for two big leaks in the delta. After half a century of working in Nigeria, Shell is pulling back. It is close to selling four productive oil blocks. It also paid out $1.7m in compensation to groups in the delta affected by spills.

After half a century of hostility to Shell and disappointment at broken promises from the government, MOSOP has so far shown little interest in the UN report. But Mr Saro-Wiwa’s son is more upbeat. “The report is a belated vindication of the allegations my father raised 25 years ago,” says Mr Saro-Wiwa Junior. “I think and hope that an important psychological barrier has been broken.

Nigeria, A Precarious Economy

I watched Sanusi Lamido Sanusi, our Central Bank Governor, on Saharareporters TV last week, wading through the many questions on Islamic Banking and my respect for the man soared even further.

I had watched his defence of the same issue in the House of Reps chambers, and at that particular moment when he mentioned that the second highest shareholder in the proposed non-interest (Islamic) bank was Igbo, the whole House was aghast. The jaws of most Representatives dropped! That is what comes from preparing well for a defence, knowing ones onions and being articulate.

Sanusi was one of my inspirations in putting my book, CRUSHED! together. I had approached him at one of those open forums, to write a foreword for the book, but I just let the idea slide because the poor man has too much on his plate already. The book is also a monster of sorts; controversial and bold in many ways. The few people who have read it have been shocked to speechlessness. Some were afraid for me, but therein lies my strategy. I chose to heed Soyinka's advise back in the day, that 'the man (has) died in him, who keeps quiet in the face of tyranny and injustice'. So, I am still physically living (as I type this at least), in spite of the many revelations in the book. I will have to seek him out and present a copy to him though. Some sections in the book are dedicated to his work. Imagine, I read part of the book again last week - and I burst into tears at some point! I was overwhelmed with emotions. Really, I've done Nigeria and the black race a great favour in that book. More than my fair share...

But my concern today is about the precariousness of the Nigerian economy, and by extension, the entire country, in spite of Sanusi's best efforts. I am concerned that the sheer banality of this economy may yet rubbish the legacy of a truly great and hard-working man. Sanusi did hint in the saharareporters interview that he didn't need five whole years to make his impact on the economy. My heart sank, for I knew the man must be really tired of the Nigerian madness. Why drill a CBN governor over every other issue, every other day? Why allege ethnic and religious bias over bank licensing? In the sharareporters interview, the CBN Governor was clear about his focus on inflation and productivity. Still, this economy hangs on a very thin thread.

As we all know, this is a mono-product economy. What we economists know as 'Dutch Disease', whereby a country neglects its other assets because of the presence of extractive resources - like crude oil - is holding Nigeria in a vice-grip. It is amazing that the best analysis of the Nigerian economy today, still centres around the proceeds of crude oil. If we are wise, we should stop analyzing and reporting GDP growth, inflation targets and what have you, that are totally skewed by the sales of crude oil. Today, Nigeria's Bonny Light Sweet Crude sells at around $118 per barrel, and we are lucky to be producing at an all-time-high of 2.6million barrels per day. We should really sterilize the effects of crude oil from our reporting of GDP and Foreign Direct Investments. To make matters worse, bilateral and multilateral trade agreements also deceitfully report progress and achievements based on Crude Oil sales. USA's AGOA (Africa Growth Opportunities Act), lists Nigeria as one of the countries whose exports are being 'encouraged' by the USA. But 98% of the export to the USA from Nigeria is crude oil.

Now the bad news. If the study of statistics is anything to go by, the crude oil prices that Nigeria is enjoying today at $118, is going to crash someday soon. This is not about voodoo. And it has nothing to do with religion. Crude oil is a product of science; it is nothing spiritual. From the 1880's through to 1973, the price of crude oil never exceeded $30 per barrel. The first spike in 1973 as a result of the Yom Kippur war between Israel and the Arab world, sent prices soaring to around $90, followed by a gradual crash in prices, to about $30 in the mid-80s. This was what put Nigeria, as well as other commodity-based African countries in economic depression, thereby exposing us to the bad advice of IMF, World Bank and their cohorts. This crash, which we never provided for or expected, is what turned many African countries - chiefly Nigeria - into beggar nations, laden with huge debts which had to be cancelled circa 2006. Between 1987/8 to 2002, the price of crude oil hovered between $30 and $35.

The current high plateau of crude oil prices on which we are riding, which started with the US invasion of Iraq in 2003, compounded by its spending in Afghanistan, among others, is therefore not sustainable to the future. More importantly, a high crude oil price is not in the interest of the superpowers. China's rise added for the demand for more crude, hence the pressure on price. But China too is working to reduce the cost of purchasing crude oil from countries like Nigeria. It is instructive to note that General Sani Abacha, much vilified and demonized by the Western countries and their local collaborators, ran this Nigerian economy on crude oil prices of between $9 and $11 per barrel! I am not a prophet of doom, but crude oil prices will, someday in the near future, come back to the $10-$30 level. In statistics, this is called the Random Walk phenomenon, and it is a scientific reality, because of the many intervening forces in the market, who exert their interests in different directions. Producing countries are only one of such forces and cannot keep crude oil prices at the peak levels that they are now, for much longer. So, what has gone wrong with Nigeria since Abacha? Yes, you heard me right, since Abacha?

How come Nigeria sells crude oil at $118 today and our foreign reserves are dwindling almost unstoppably? Why is the federal government financing every state and local government with the proceeds of crude oil but there is nothing to show for it on ground. Why do some states collect as much as N20billion from the federal government every month and their people are still crassly poor? What happens if the price of crude oil crashes tomorrow? The debate for minimum wage is on. But even at the present wage structure, ALL governments in Nigeria will start to owe salaries FROM THE FIRST MONTH, WHEN the price of crude oil crashes.

So in spite of Malam Sanusi's best efforts, I daresay this is a bad time in history for one to work for government in Nigeria. Reputations are at stake. Yet the needed unity and strategy, that could save this country from disintegration and even the black man from extinction, are nowhere near in sight. Since Abacha, we have totally lost our innocence in this country. We have become greedier. Our big men have totally confiscated the commonwealth, building mansions and stashing even more money abroad than Abacha could ever dream of. They have elevated deceit to the level of virtue and take pleasure in inflaming deadly rivalry amongst the people they lead, in order to keep the confusion going. It cannot go on for much longer. Certainly.

Dr. Joe Okei-Odumakin, president, Campaign for Democracy (CD) and founder Women Arise (WA), is one of the leading human rights activists in the country. In this interview with SEYI GESINDE, she challenges the current national leaders on the need to find lasting solution to issues threatening national security and speaks on other germaine issues. Excerpts:

 WHat is your view on Islamic banking and its supposed threat to national security?

People should have the freedom to engage in any form of transaction, even up to the point of business transaction with religious undertone. The state should not give the impression that it is giving undue advantage to any faith against another. There should be equal opportunity and level playing field for all to operate. The religious leaders should not heat up the polity because people of different faith organisations do business and share profits. So, they should not use religion to divide the people.

 But Christian leaders have complained about the country’s leadership and its tendencies to Islamise Nigeria. Do you see any indices pointing towards this direction?

If care is not taken, it can happen because of the way the present leadership is conducting affairs. Some people in this country are becoming so powerful that they just want to bring about anything at all costs. They want to bring in whatever pleases them and this is becoming increasingly dangerous.

If you look at it critically, you will observe that the kind of debate that goes on now as regards Sharia, Boko Haram and Islamic banking are issues that tend towards Islam as a religion. One would expect that in a secular nation, caution should be taken on issue of religion and all changes must be carried out with some level of citizen education and consultation with all stakeholders

 What about the controversy the single term proposal for the presidency is currently generating?

The single term presidency should not be the priority of a government that is not yet 60 days in office, if not that there is a hidden agenda. It can heat up the polity and create unnecessary diversion.

 Dr. Joe Okei-Odumakin

The minimum wage and governor's refusal to pay is another matter heating up the polity. What should be the way forward, bearing in mind that the bill approving the new pay has already been signed into law?

The governors are just being callous and inhuman; there are no two ways to it. The way forward is for the governors to pay the minimum wage. I strongly believe that the states can pay the minimum wage to workers, but they are just being stubborn unnecessarily. How do we believe that they cannot pay, when on a daily basis we read and hear of millions of naira they spend on mundane things; when we see the huge amount of money elected officials receive for doing nothing, whereas the workers who make the states tick live in abject poverty?

 It is no longer news that governors loot the treasury and steal the people's money. Immediately after the tenure of governors, you hear of several billions of naira they have siphoned from the states' treasury, whereas workers are being owed salaries, pensions and gratuities are not paid, and the workers continue to be at the receiving end of the whole misappropriation.

The fact that the bill approving the minimum wage has been signed into law has made it compulsory for the governors to pay. So, what they should do is to strategise; cut down on all the unnecessary expenses, and improve on internal revenue drive. I believe that instead of heating up the polity with issue of minimum wage payment that could lead to strike and paralyse economic activities; they should just assure workers that they will pay.

 Nigerians have on several occasions complained about the bogus pay of National Assembly members to the detriment of other players in the public sector. Do they really deserve this preferential treatment?

This is one issue that will continue to draw public attention and might boomerang very soon, if it is not checked. This is one sad case of people earning very fat allowance for doing nothing extraordinary. The bogus pay and the affluence of the law makers at the National Assembly have become an issue of concern. The issue is beginning to have recalcitrant effect on so many other issues - for instance, the minimum wage debate, the issue of social development, provision of infrastructure and so on.

 The complaints of Nigerians over this pay are very genuine if one looks at the huge amount of money that accrues to these people on monthly basis. It is so high that one wonders how that came about and how it was approved for them. It is worrisome because we see that while so many Nigerians, more than 70 per cent, live below $1 per day , National Assembly members continue to live a life of affluence.

Other players in the public sector see the bogus pay of the National Assembly as a slap on their faces and so, they clamour for equal pay or treatment. At this stage, one could do nothing else, but to ask for the downward review of the National Assembly members’ pay.

 The Boko Haram insurgence and series of bombing attacks that followed it is creating a lot of security challenge in the country. Where do you thing this can lead Nigeria to?

The Boko Haram insurgence portrays great danger for Nigeria. It is a very ugly development and it only shows to us that our security is very porous, loose and very unprotective. It has showed to us that there is the presence of terrorists in the country and that is a very dangerous development.

If care is not taken, the insurgence could cause religious clashes or even war. I am aware that a group just emerged now in Kaduna called the Akwota or something. The group was said to be combat ready; that for any attack of Boko Haram on Christians, they will retaliate. This development could escalate and cause attacks and counter attacks. This is why it is very essential for government to face the security challenge head long. It is important that security agencies should be alive to their responsibilities so as to curb the bombings and killings that are being perpetrated by Boko Haram.

It is certain that some Nigerians are behind the activities of the religious sect and the Federal Government must be ready to unveil these people and ensure that they are brought to book.

 The Oodua Peoples Congress (OPC) earlier issued a threat that any attempt for Boko Haram to spread its crisis to the South-West would be resisted with a counter attacks, should this just be waved aside as an empty threat?

Well, I do not think any threat should be waved aside or be seen as empty threat. The OPC, I believe, was set up for a particular purpose and if it thinks that Boko Haram is over-stepping its bounds by any incursion into the South-West and issued statements of that nature, it should be taken seriously.

 Therefore, the security agencies should be at alert to ensure that such a thing does not happen. Security must be intensified to ensure that Boko Haram does not get into the South-West and to also ensure that the activities of the group is monitored.

 Some Nigerians have complained about what they called President Goodluck Jonathan's lukewarm attitude to issues threatening national security. How do you see this?

Well, whether it is a matter of attitude or not, it is a different thing, but what is obvious is that the president has been very lukewarm on the issue of national security. He has been very slow to take proactive actions on the matter and this allowed the issue to linger on, causing more havocs.

 The fall in the living standard of Nigerians is pushing a lot of people to the streets. Is this not a pointer to the fact that Nigeria is joining the league of failed states?

There is no gainsaying this; it is so obvious; it is staring us in the face and we do not need to deceive ourselves on this all-important matter. The living standard has so fallen that we are beginning to see the symptoms of a failed state in all that we do.

 Poverty is obvious everywhere, people are hungry, homeless and devastated. The streets are full of children and youths who have no hope for the future. People wear long faces at bus stops and street corners. We see aggression everywhere and value and respect have disappeared. Crime rate is so high — armed robbery, kidnapping, oil pipe vandalism are the order of the day. People can no longer afford three-square meal per day; basic commodities are very expensive, even staple foods have become unaffordable. All these are signs of a failed state.

 The current leaders have to face this reality and stop fooling themselves, believing that all is well. All is not well and the state is heading towards collapse.

 Former President Olusegun Obasanjo recently made a public comment, referring to his successors as failures. Would you commend him for being that blunt?

They are all birds of a feather that flock together. They are '10 and 10 pence;' no difference.

 Obasanjo himself failed woefully. The process that brought his successors to power were full of irregularities and corruption. How will they succeed?

Obasanjo never wanted his successors to succeed and he engineered it to be so. That is why he has continued to boast that his tenure was better than what obtained after him. He programmed it so by rigging the 2007 elections for the late Umaru Yar'Adua and his cohorts, and that is why they were unable to get anything done. Same is happening now because they are all the same bunch of politicians who are bent on ruining Nigeria.

 Obasanjo deserves no commendation for such comment, in fact, he should be held responsible for our predicaments from 1999 to date. He and his allies have turned Nigeria to a ping pong game, killing the economy and making social amenities prostrate.

 What should be the role of former leaders of the country in view of the current national crises?

Former Nigeria leaders need to be more concerned about the survival of Nigeria now, if they are truly statesmen. This is the time to develop a sustainable intervention to save Nigeria from the hands of greedy politicians who are never satisfied. One would not expect unpatriotic statements from them irrespective of their personal ambition. They need to bury their own interest in the collective and seek actions that will move Nigeria to the league of developed nations. They need to sacrifice their time and energy towards the 'upliftment' of this country.

 How far with the civil society's renewed call for the convening of the national conference?

Now, the civil society groups are organising again to start advocating for national conference with renewed strength and power to ensure that the national conference is convened. The national conference, if allowed to happen, is the only sure means or gate to resolving so many of the challenges confronting Nigeria today.

 It is the only weapon capable of defining the continued existence of Nigeria as a nation state. It is the only instrument that can reverse the situation now from that of a failed state to a working state. And that is why it is going to be proposed again and massive campaign and support will be launched for it. It is certain that if a people's constitution emerges from the conference, then, our living together and the structure of governance will be addressed.

 What do you see to Professor Wole Soyinka's recent call on President Jonathan to unravel the mystery surrounding former President Yar’Adua’s death with the FoI Bill?

Yes, this is needed for us to shape things. The situation where government officials and elected officials behave the way they like and go scot-free should be stopped. At least, if people get punished, then, it will curb others who might want to travel the same road some other time.

 The entire situation surrounding the sickness and eventual death must be unravelled. Nigerians need to know all that transpired and that is why the FoI Act shall be evoked to get all information surrounding the death of the former president.

Nigerian Tribune

Ambassador John Campbell’s Doomsday Prophecy

Ambassador John Campbell, former American ambassador to Nigeria and now of the American Council of Foreign Relations needs to introduction to Nigerians. After reading his Nigeria in Never Never Land essay on the website nigeriavillagesquare.com, I couldn’t help but think that the former U.S diplomat is on a mission to help actualise the doomsday prophecy of the American CIA which had predicted in 2005 that Nigeria will disintegrate as a nation within 15 years. They say that to kill a dog, you will have to give it a bad name. Therefore it is not surprising that Mr Campbell is once again travelling a very familiar road with his anarchy coloured essay. This is not out of character though as his utterances and activities since he left Nigeria seems to confirm his true motives.

Compared to his compatriots (Ambassador Robin Renee Sanders and Ambassador Walter Carrington), both former U.S ambassadors to Nigeria, a friend of Nigeria Mr Campbell is surely not. We now at least know who our true friends are. Our friends are those that do not always see what’s not good about us, rather they are the ones that can use their position and influence and help to us to improve our democratic process, attract foreign investors and not scare them away with Hollywood influenced tales. Perhaps one should not be surprised with the position taken by Mr Campbell in his recent essay on Nigeria, it is consistent with the hidden motives of the west and their allies to promote conflicts in foreign lands and then cash in at the same time through arms sales, humanitarian aid etc. The Hollywood movie ‘Wag the Dog’ best depicts this American practice.

Reading Mr Campbell’s essay, you can’t help but sympathise with Mr. Segun Aganga, Nigeria’s new Minister of Trade and Investment as his job has just been made much more challenging as he begins a mighty task of convincing foreign investors to come to Nigeria, not against the backdrop of the scary tales of the Campbells of this world. For Nigeria to develop, we need investments in the critical areas of infrastructural development, roads, power, housing etc. These can only come as FDIs but such inflows will be jeopardised if the Campbells of this world keep painting the picture of Nigeria as a doomed economy to the outside world.

While accepting that Nigeria is facing some challenges, so also are other countries including America. America grapples daily with hurricanes and other natural disasters that lead to loss of human lives and damage to properties. Lagos experiences one bad spell of flooding and Mr Campbell conveniently dumps it on the doorsteps of Mr Jonathan, these Americans are funny. I didn’t hear Mr Campbell in his essay speak about how his organisation or country will support some of the victims as is the practice worldwide during such disasters. I remember that the Nigerian government donated 1 million dollars to the American government in aid of victims of Hurricane Katrina. We did not question or query the state of preparedness of the Americans. This is the most civil thing to do; anything else is pure mischief as Mr Campbell has shown with his writing.

The Jonathan presidency is just 2 months old, too bad the President inherited a lot of these social, political, religious and economic issues but solving these could not have been done in just 2 months. The President has been talking about transformation and it is only natural that he be allowed and given time to show Nigerians if he is just only talk, without any action. It is rather too early and distracting to be throwing the punches.

I was first drawn to Mr Campbell’s essay by a post made by Mallam Nasir El-Rufai, my friend on Facebook on his wall. The Mallam now turned emergency social critic and activist seems to be pleased that Mr Campbell had referenced his recent encounter with the SSS over his article on the cost of running government in Nigeria. Perhaps the SSS may have been a little overzealous in their handling of the El-Rufai matter but I must say that I find Mallam El-Rufai’s recent self-righteous posturing nauseating, considering that he was a prince in the Obasanjo and Yar’Adua governments. His activities both at the Bureau for Public Enterprises (BPE) and at the Federal Capital Territory Ministry have remained subjects of negative public criticisms. Having since been sidelined by the Jonathan government, he now uses his membership of the editorial board of This Day newspaper and the platform of his Friday column in the newspaper to attack the government. But true to character, Nigerians should not expect El-Rufai to see anything good in the Jonathan government as his party, Congress for Progressive Change (CPC) lost heavily in the recently concluded general elections.

Not everyone is buying John Campbell’s thesis. In a rejoinder published on the same website, Reno Omokri, a political campaign strategist writes that Mr Campbell’s recent attacks was borne out of the grudges he still harbours against the Nigerian state "for the loss of the substantial financial honorarium that would have accrued to him had his visa application to visit Nigeria in order to deliver a graduation lecture at the American University Of Nigeria in Yola as a member of its governing council not been denied". He went on to accuse Mr Campbell of double standards since "he only applied for a visa less than a week to his travel date and even at that submitted no documentation to establish his status as a member of that university's governing council", and that he had only himself to blame for the visa denial. Mr Omokri wondered what would have been the fate of a Nigerian who submitted an application for a U.S. visa a week to his travel date and without documentation during the time Mr. Campbell was the U.S. ambassador to Nigeria.

Maybe the time has come for the Nigerian government to wage its own information war against people like John Campbell and expose them for who they are, opportunists looking to exploit the developmental challenges of developing economies for their personal aggrandisement and for the benefit of their home countries.

Uche Nworah is a freelance writer, lecturer and brand scholar. He is the founder and project director of T.O.T.A.L PROJECTS , an NGO that promotes e-learning in Africa. He lives in London and can be contacted on This e-mail address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it

Chancellor Angela Merkel in Nigeria, Kenya

"German Chancellor Angela Merkel met the president of oil-and-gas rich Nigeria on Thursday after her trip to Angola the previous day sparked controversy over an offer to sell patrol boats. Merkel was expected to discuss energy and African security matters with President Goodluck Jonathan, who won April elections viewed as the fairest since the continent's largest oil producer returned to civilian rule in 1999.The German chancellor was welcomed by a military guard at the presidential palace in Abuja on Thursday morning following her arrival in Africa's most populous nation the previous night." -AFP

German Chancellor Angela Merkel arrives in Nigeria accompanied by Minister of State, Foreign Affairs Viola Onwuliri at the Nnamdi Azikiwe International Airport in Abuja..

German Chancellor, Angela Merkel, centre, inspects a guard of honor, during her visit to the state house, in Abuja, Nigeria, Thursday, July 14, 2011.

German Chancellor Angela Merkel poses with representatives of religious communities (L-R) emir of Wase, Muhammadu Sambo Haruna, catholic archbishop of Jos, Ignatius Kaigama, sultan of Sokoto, Muhammed Sa'adu Abubakar, rev. Matthew Hassan Kukah and imam of the National mosque Sheikh Musa Muhammad on July 14, 2011 in Abuja, Nigeria

German Chancellor Angela Merkel reviews the honour guard during a welcoming ceremony at the State House in Nairobi, on July 12, 2011 before meeting with Kenya's President Mwai Kibaki. Merkel is on official visit to Kenya to discuss economic cooperation, specifically in the energy sector.

German Chancellor Angela Merkel (L) shakes hands with Kenya's President Mwai Kibaki at the State House in Nairobi, on July 12, 2011.

Germany's Chancellor Angela Merkel gives a speech on July 12, 2011 at the University of Nairobi during the second day of her state visit to the East African nation. Merkel on Tuesday urged Kenya to cooperate with the International Criminal Court in the trial of six top suspects in the country's 2007-2008 post-election unrest.'I talked with the prime minister and the president about the fact that it is right to cooperate with the ICC,' Merkel said. Nairobi has challenged the ICC's jurisdiction to investigate six senior allies of President Mwai Kibaki and Prime Minister Raila Odinga, and previously sought a delay of the trial.

credits:  AP, AFP

"I strongly believe that we should try as a country as much as possible live within our means."

Dressed in a blue blouse and skirt made of African print with black spots and with her landmark headgear, Mrs. Okonjo-Iweala entered the Senate chambers at precisely 12.10 p.m. and was let off at 1.15 p.m. for ministerial screening.

She was quizzed on several issues pertaining to the economy and for the first time was publicly made to disclose reasons for her unceremonious exit from the Olusegun Obasanjo cabinet.

Noting that Nigeria was eating out of what it should be using to develop itself, Mrs. Okonjo-Iweala said: "I am really worried about the issue of making sure our budget is not eaten up by recurrent expenditure. How can we invest in capital if we’re spending all our money on recurrent expenditures. Can we run a budget that is not negative? Absolutely. We can do it, we have done it. We have been able in the past.

Recurrent expenditure

"I strongly believe that we should try as a country as much as possible live within our means. Right now we need to work very hard because the budget that we have is such that the current expenditure is almost 74 per cent of the budget, therefore, there is not as much left for capital, so we need to work hard to put in place policy that will make it possible to continue to implement fiscal policies that will enable us to tackle the various challenges in the economy while at the same time living within our means."

She noted that the recurrent expenditure was crowding out other necessary investment in infrastructure especially power and as such solicited the help of senators to help the executive branch of government by giving the push to cut down recurrent spending.

Also noting the effect of unemployment on the economy, she said: "I think the main problems in the economy have to do with creating jobs. We have unemployment rate of about 14 to 16 per cent, but very large under-employment and the issue is how to make the economy growing in a way that it will create jobs, so those fiscal policies have to be supportive of sectors that are going to be job creating, because we now have growth, but we need to translate that growth into jobs, so those are the kinds of fiscal policies that we need to encourage. We should privatize sectors that are job creating."

Noting the declining performance of the federal budget, she said: "When I joined the administration of Chief Olusegun Obasanjo, the budget implementation was 30 percent in 2003, we got up to 90 and 85 percent as at the time I was leaving. And that was a good for any country. As at now the implementation is at 53 percent. I don’t see any reason why the budget will not be fully implemented, if it is reasonable and delivered on time. Budget will be fully implemented if the revenue is coming with less expenditure."

Expressing concern that the country was not maximally exploiting its oil revenues, she said: "We are losing reserves, it shouldn"t be, we should be increasing our reserves, at the same time. I am aware that part of the reserve maybe due to decision to support the naira, I don’t think is something that is untoward, but if we want to revalue the naira this will not be the time to think about it. I think we should wait until things are more stable, we are growing our economy, we are creating jobs, we make sure our young people are working and the sectors we have are really giving what they should before we think in that direction."

Investment in oil sectcor

Answering a question on the Joint Venture Companies, JVC, Okonjo-Iweala said: "On the issue of JVC I think there are number of modalities that many countries use to manage the oil sector, exploration in their countries and investment into the oil sector. I think the problem that we have is that our own portion of the joint venture over time we have difficulties meeting that, but I don’t see anything wrong with them per se, I think in the beginning if you are going to go that route, you really need to have strong presence and advise to make sure that what you negotiate really obeys the law that will be of benefit to the country at the end of the day after the whole process."

Inevitably, she was drawn to why she had to resign from the Obasanjo government after her successful role in erasing most of the country’s debts to the Paris Club of debtor nations.

She said: "I did not run away, I was here. I resigned, I served the country for about three years and when I determined that I could no longer perform and give to the country the way that I would want, I resigned, which is the honourable thing to do, so I did not run away. When the circumstances are appropriate to serve, you serve and if they are not appropriate, you go and do something else. I think three years plus of service is quite substantial, not only in Nigeria, but elsewhere in other countries, it is regarded as a good amount of time to have given the country and I intend to implement and if Iam cleared I will do my job."

On the usefulness or otherwise of sustaining the subsidy on petroleum, Mrs. Okonjo-Iweala said that subsidy was a good instrument needful in narrowing the economic gap between the rich and the poor but lamented that where it is not effectively utilized it becomes wasted.

She said that she was especially touched by the wide gulf between the rich and the poor in Nigeria saying that narrowing it was one of the incentives for her returning to the federal cabinet.

She noted: "We have coefficient of inequality. It is this inequality that is holding us down. People keep asking why I want to come back to work, but the reason is simple. In a country where the rich keeps getting richer and the poor keeps getting poorer, we need to bridge the gap. We live in a country, where the rich can just wake up and decide to travel abroad, just as their children school abroad and have access to good healthcare. On the part of the poor, the reverse is the case."

In addition, Iweala said: "The children of the poor don’t have good schools to attend to and no good healthcare system in a country of 150 million people. That is the inequality we are talking about. We must change this because I know it is possible to do so. I will ensure that we improve the lot of the common people, in order to prevent our young people from moving abroad."

Vanguard's HENRY UMORU, CHARLES KUMOLU, INALEGWU SHAIBU& OGECHI OHAEGBULAM

Nigeria spends N630 billion to import agricultural foods annually because the agricultural sector has been pushed to the background, the governor of Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), has said.

Sanusi Lamido Sanusi said this yesterday in Abuja when President Goodluck Jonathan launched the N77.5 billion Nigeria incentive-based Risk Sharing System for Agriculture (NIRSAL) meant to de-risk lending to the sector.

The CBN designed the NIRSAL as a mechanism to support farmers to transit from subsistence to commercial farming and for the banks to better understand agricultural financing as a profitable business.

Out of the N630 billion spends on food importation annually, N165 billion goes for wheat, N105 billion on fish, N75 billion on rice and N60 billion on sugar.

"In the last five decades, agricultural financing in Nigeria considered and treated each project in isolation not giving adequate attention to other players along the value chain," Sanusi said.

Vice President Mohammed Sambo Namadi represented the President to launch the NIRSAL which is structured into five pillars.

The first pillar is what is called Risk Sharing Facilities which is allocated N46.5 billion; Insurance Facility N4.65 billion; Technical Assistance Facility N9.3 billion; Agric Bank Rating System N1.55 billion; and Bank Incentive Mechanism N15.5 billion.

The President commended the Governor of CBN for the initiative, saying it will help in growing the sector.

NIRSAL is expected to generate additional N465 billion of bank lending within 10 years to increase agricultural lending from the current 1.4 to 7 percent of the total bank lending.

It is expected to increase lending to the pool of small farmers segment and reach 3.8 million agricultural producers by 2020.

It is also expected to reduce banks' break-even interest rate to borrowers from 14 to 7.5 to 10.5 percent.

It has been projected that the Nigerian agricultural sector has the potential to grow its current output valued N15.25 trillion by 160 percent to N39.4 trillion by 20230.

"This growth potential could be achieved by increasing both the productivity and total acreage of cultivated land since about 38 percent of Nigeria's arable land of 36.6 million ha is yet to be tapped," Sanusi said.

Idris Ahmed & Tina A. Hassan write for Daily Trust

Child labour and population explosion in Nigeria

So many talk shops have been going on child labour, population explosion and family related matters calling for serious attention before they go weird. It is really a troublesome topic to discuss because many people have faced it with myopic perceptions while others have gone too sentimental about the whole matter.

 Child labour is a universal phenomenon especially in underdeveloped countries, Nigeria inclusive. But I continue to wriggle in pains whenever I think about Nigeria finding it very difficult to develop amidst too much wealth and health. With such bounties bestowed on Nigeria by the Incomprehensible Almighty, I cannot find any cogent reason why Nigeria should have this menace called child labour on the increase as well as remain underdeveloped. I do not subscribe to some arguments that it is a curse because our leaderships had failed us.

 Children below the age of maturity are exclusive responsibility of their parents. Their feeding, clothing, education, health and maintenance should be completely taken care of by their parents most especially their male parent. Duties of both parents of a child are clearly stated in Holy Scriptures and practically demonstrated by the best of humanity. Even today, some people are guided by the spirit of God and humanity, and they can never subject their God-given innocent children to hardship and the hostilities of life.

 Except for a child whose both parents are dead; this is God’s making and God’s decision in this respect often has very remote positive consequences which man often never comprehend. And in the cause of putting up a challenge against God’s decision, such child goes off-track. A child here means a grown-up. Otherwise, God will send a good Samaritan to the tender one as saviour.

 In Nigeria, our streets and markets are eyesore with very small innocent children exposed to the queers of the society, hawking, stealing, pick-pocketing, wandering and even begging for food. Why? Why? Why, dear parents? If you are alive under whatever condition, why should you allow your three, four, five, six, seven, eight, nine and ten year old child to go out and hawk to feed you and pay his or her school fees? Remember that God gave them to you as trust. Remember that many people have remained sad because they cannot hear a cry from a child of their own.

There has been arguments on how many children a nuclear family should be made up of in Nigeria. It is documented on papers that each family should not have more than four children. This means that every Nigerian couple should be entitled to four children only, in an effort to control population explosion. But the questions that arise are: Will that be the solution to Nigeria’s poverty pandemic, considering the fact that many African countries have little population but are worst hit be poverty, underdevelopment and child labour. Also, does it imply that Nigerian men should stop having more than one wife? And if this happens, what kind of society will Nigeria become where a quarter of its female population has no husbands?

 Added to this, what is the assurance that bastards most of who are naturally the cause of our numerous societal rots will not multiply. With the set-up of today, Nigeria has a long way to go in terms of development and fight against social ills even if every family bears only one child in the next two decades. So, I think our strength for today is in our number. It is because we are many that we are blessed. It is because we are many that we have so many good heads. It is because we are many that developed countries fear us, because we cannot all be caged, monitored and undermined. It is because of this that they fear one day, one or a group from amongst the multitude will rise and change our fortunes.

However, it is quite true that poverty is the root of child labour and its attendant consequences: child abuse, child trafficking, child prostitution and even child witch-crafting. Poverty itself is the primary cause of population explosion. Find out how!

A family needs joy and social amenities. When there is no television for the parents to watch; no recreational facilities and the two monitor the movement of each other against extramarital affairs, they swallow themselves times without number and generate children. Some cannot travel outside their birth places. Some Nigerians, even married couples, have never traveled outside their villages, local government areas and states.

There is hard work that generates extra power for the men. There is idleness which invites all forms of thought. A man goes out for his daily bread but comes back without anything. The woman is angry that the family has nothing to eat in a day. There is no new experience or discussion to share between the parents. The environment is the same. All these sorrowful conditions cannot remain because human being are impatient and always in a hurry. Some people in such hurry hang themselves or abandon their matrimonial homes. Stories that attest to this abound in the cities. And other parents in an attempt to cheat and steal the time will console themselves with imaginary love. At the end, children are generated.

Therefore, the problem of child labour can only be effectively controlled when the government provides social amenities, creates jobs (not only political jobs for a few) for parents to engage, initiates and sponsors general child-basic needs and enact enabling laws to protect the child. But it must not be believed that freedom of a child should be total in such that the parents can be challenged by the child, except when the child’s basic needs are not provided.

 Muhammad Ajah is a writer, author, advocate of humanity and good governance based in Abuja E-mail: This e-mail address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it